The if version VS goto version:

on *:text:!cmd:#:{
  var %t = $rand(1,2)
  if (%t == 1) { msg $chan $nick $+ , cupcake rocks! }
  if (%t == 2) { msg $chan $nick $+ , muffin sucks! }
}

on *:text:!cmd:#:{
  goto $rand(1,2)
  :1 | msg $chan $nick $+ , cupcake rocks! | halt
  :2 | msg $chan $nick $+ , muffin sucks! | halt
}

You be the judge.